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Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the world\'s population. (See List of countries by population.)
Population by continent as a percentage of world population (1750-2005)
The world population is the total number of humans on Earth at a given time. In February 2008, the world\'s population is believed to have reached over 6.60 billion.CIA\'s The World Factbook (see also The World Factbook)World POPClock Projection, U.S. Census Bureau In line with population projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th century, although the rate of increase has almost halved since its peak, which was reached in 1963, of 2.2 percent per year. The world\'s population, on its current growth trajectory, is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2050.
Censuses taken between 300–400 AD[dubious] showed over 50 million people living in the combined eastern and western Roman empire.[citation needed](citation Dr. Kenneth W. Harl, tulane.edu)
Below is a table with historical and predicted population figures shown in millions.World population prospects: the 2004 revision population databaseThe World at un.orgPopulation Growth over Human History The availability of historical population figures varies by region. Please see World population estimates for more figures.
| Region | 1750 | 1800 | 1850 | 1900 | 1950 | 1999 | 2050 | 2150 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 791 | 978 | 1,262 | 1,650 | 2,521 | 5,978 | 8,909 | 9,746 |
| Africa | 106 | 107 | 111 | 133 | 221 | 767 | 1,766 | 2,308 |
| Asia | 502 | 635 | 809 | 947 | 1,402 | 3,634 | 5,268 | 5,561 |
| Europe | 163 | 203 | 276 | 408 | 547 | 729 | 628 | 517 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean * | 16 | 24 | 38 | 74 | 167 | 511 | 809 | 912 |
| Northern America * | 2 | 7 | 26 | 82 | 172 | 307 | 392 | 398 |
| Oceania | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 46 | 51 |
| Region | 1750 | 1800 | 1850 | 1900 | 1950 | 1999 | 2050 | 2150 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Africa | 13.4 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 19.8 | 23.7 |
| Asia | 63.5 | 64.9 | 64.1 | 57.4 | 55.6 | 60.8 | 59.1 | 57.1 |
| Europe | 20.6 | 20.8 | 21.9 | 24.7 | 21.7 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean * | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| Northern America * | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Oceania | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Year | World | Africa | Asia | Europe | Latin America * | Northern America* | Oceania | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8000 BC | 5 000** | an average of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau\'s Historical Estimates of World Population; see also *Kremer, Michael. 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 681-716. | ||||||
| 7000 BC | 7 000 | |||||||
| 6000 BC | 10 000 | |||||||
| 5000 BC | 15 000 | |||||||
| 4000 BC | 20 000 | |||||||
| 3000 BC | 25 000 | |||||||
| 2000 BC | 35 000 | |||||||
| 1000 BC | 50 000 | |||||||
| 500 BC | 100 000 | |||||||
| 1 | 200,000+ | The range of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau\'s Historical Estimates of World Population put the population at 1 CE between 170 million to 400 million. | ||||||
| 1000 | 310 000 | |||||||
| 1750 | 791 000 | 106 000 | 502 000 | 163 000 | 16 000 | 2 000 | 2 000 | |
| 1800 | 978 000 | 107 000 | 635 000 | 203 000 | 24 000 | 7 000 | 2 000 | |
| 1850 | 1 262 000 | 111 000 | 809 000 | 276 000 | 38 000 | 26 000 | 2 000 | |
| 1900 | 1 650 000 | 133 000 | 947 000 | 408 000 | 74 000 | 82 000 | 6 000 | |
| 1950 | 2 518 629 | 221 214 | 1 398 488 | 547 403 | 167 097 | 171 616 | 12 812 | |
| 1955 | 2 755 823 | 246 746 | 1 541 947 | 575 184 | 190 797 | 186 884 | 14 265 | |
| 1960 | 2 981 659 | 277 398 | 1 674 336 | 601 401 | 209 303 | 204 152 | 15 888 | |
| 1965 | 3 334 874 | 313 744 | 1 899 424 | 634 026 | 250 452 | 219 570 | 17 657 | |
| 1970 | 3 692 492 | 357 283 | 2 143 118 | 655 855 | 284 856 | 231 937 | 19 443 | |
| 1975 | 4 068 109 | 408 160 | 2 397 512 | 675 542 | 321 906 | 243 425 | 21 564 | |
| 1980 | 4 434 682 | 469 618 | 2 632 335 | 692 431 | 361 401 | 256 068 | 22 828 | |
| 1985 | 4 830 979 | 541 814 | 2 887 552 | 706 009 | 401 469 | 269 456 | 24 678 | |
| 1990 | 5 263 593 | 622 443 | 3 167 807 | 721 582 | 441 525 | 283 549 | 26 687 | |
| 1995 | 5 674 380 | 707 462 | 3 430 052 | 727 405 | 481 099 | 299 438 | 28 924 | |
| 2000 | 6 070 581 | 795 671 | 3 679 737 | 727 986 | 520 229 | 315 915 | 31 043 | |
| 2005 | 6 453 628 | 887 964 | 3 917 508 | 724 722 | 558 281 | 332 156 | 32 998** |
* Northern America indicates the northern countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and St. Pierre and Miquelon. This should not be confused with the term "North America" which typically includes Mexico. The United Nations data includes Mexico as part of Latin America.
** This figure is disputed.
.svg/58px-World population (UN).svg)
Population evolution in different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is millions of people.
Different regions have different rates of population growth, but in the unusual case of the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity made by the Green Revolution.
In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world\'s population was then growing at the rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year,census.gov down from a peak of 86 million per year in 1987. In the last few centuries, the number of people living on Earth has increased many times over. By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth than there were 300 years ago. According to data from the CIA\'s 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the world human population currently increases by 203,800 every day.Current world population (ranked) The 2007 CIA factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day.
Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New York (2006) ISBN 0-312-42581-3
In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates) and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next decade, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.
Population growth which exceeds the carrying capacity of an area or environment results in overpopulation. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system; however, many who do not view overpopulation as a serious problem fail to consider the sustainability of economic systems, the environmental degradation caused, and the ecological footprint of the existing population.
Population curve.svg
Population (est.) 10,000 BCE – 2000 CE. |
Population (est.) in log y scale |
World population history.svg
World population 1950–2000 |
World population increase history.svg
Increase rate 1950–2000 |
The following shows estimates of when each billion milestone was or will be met:
| Population | 1 billion | 2 billion | 3 billion | 4 billion | 5 billion | 6 billion | 7 billion | 8 billion | 9 billion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1804 | 1927 | 1961 | 1974 | 1987 | 1999 | 2011 | 2024 | 2042 |
| Years until next billion | 123 | 34 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
These numbers show that the world\'s population has tripled in 72 years, and doubled in 38 years up to the year 1999. Including some more estimates, the world population has been doubled or will double in the following years (with two different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling has taken roughly half as long as the previous doubling.
| Population | 250 million | 500 million | 1 billion | 2 billion | 4 billion | 8 billion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | CE 950 | 1600 | 1804 | 1927 | 1974 | 2024 |
| Years until next doubling | 650 | 204 | 123 | 47 | 50 |
| Population | . . . | 375 million | 750 million | 1.5 billion | 3 billion | 6 billion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1420 | 1720 | 1875 | 1961 | 1999 | |
| Years until next doubling | 300 | 155 | 86 | 38 |
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Population density map of the world in 1994, when the world\'s population was at 5.6 billion; Observe the high densities in the Indo-Gangetic and North China Plains, the Sichuan Basin, the Nile river delta, Southern Japan, Western Europe, the Indonesian island of Java, Central America (especially El Salvador, the Americas\' most densely populated nation), and the United States\' BosWash megalopolis.
Asia accounts for over 60% of the world population with almost 3.8 billion people. People\'s Republic of China and India alone comprise 20% and 16% respectively. Africa follows with 840 million people, 12% of the world population. Europe\'s 710 million people make up 11% of the world\'s population. North America is home to 514 million (8%), South America to 371 million (5.3%), and Australia 21 million.
The 15 most populous nations
From DSW-Datareport 2006 ("Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung"):
Approximately 4.3 billion people live in these 15 countries, representing roughly two-thirds of the world\'s population. If added together, all nations in the European Union, with 494 million people – about 7.3% of world\'s population in 2006 – would be third in the list above.
According to the 2006 CIA World Factbook, around 27% of the world\'s population is below 15 years of age.Age structure of the world — 2006 CIA World Factbook
Before adding mortality rates, the 1990s saw the greatest number of raw births worldwide, especially in the years after 1995, despite the fact that the birth rate was not as high as in the 1960s. In fact, because of the 160 million-per-year raw births after 1995, the time it took to reach the next billion reached its fastest pace (only 12 years), as world population reached 6 billion people in 1999, when at the beginning of the decade, the reaching was designated for the year 2000, by most demographers. People aged 7 through 17 make up these births, today.
1985–1990 marked the period with the fastest yearly population change in world history. Even though the early 1960s had a greater growth rate than in the mid and late 1980s, the population change hovered around 83 million people in the five-year period, with an all-time growth change of nearly 88 million in 1990. The reason is because the world\'s population was greater in the mid and late 1980s (around 5 billion) than in the early 1960s (around 3 billion), which meant that the growth rate in the 1980s was no factor on the dramatic population change. People aged 17 to 22 make up these births, today.
In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict. Birth rates are declining slightly on average, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels), developing countries, and different ethnicities. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and catastrophes, or advances in medicine. The UN itself has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. Over the last 10 years, the UN had consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007 revised the 2050 mid range estimate upwards by 273 million.
Alternately, the United States Census Bureau issued a revised forecast for world population that increased its projection for the year 2050 to above 9.4 billion people (which was the UN\'s 1996 projection for 2050), up from 9.1 billion people. The latest Census Bureau estimates for the same upcoming years are as follows:U.S. Census Bureau - International Data Base (IDB)
| Year | Population (in billions) |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 7.6 |
| 2030 | 8.3 |
| 2040 | 8.9 |
| 2050 | 9.4 |
Other projections of population growth predict that the world\'s population will eventually crest, though it is uncertain exactly when or how. In some scenarios, the population will crest as early as the mid-21st century at under 9 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates, (the "low variant" of ), The "high variant" from the same source gives a population between 10 and 11 billion in 2050.
In other scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population\'s demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian catastrophe (also see overpopulation).
Below is a table of predicted population figures.The World at Six BillionPopulation Growth over Human History Please see World population estimates for more figures.
| Year | World | Africa | Asia | Europe | Latin America | US and Canada | Oceania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 6 830 283 000 (100%) | 984 225 000 (14.4%) | 4 148 948 000 (60.7%) | 719 714 000 (10.5%) | 594 436 000 (8.7%) | 348 139 000 (5.1%) | 34 821 000 (0.5%) |
| 2015 | 7 197 247 000 (100%) | 1 084 540 000 (15.1%) | 4 370 522 000 (60.7%) | 713 402 000 (9.9%) | 628 260 000 (8.7%) | 363 953 000 (5.1%) | 36 569 000 (0.5%) |
| 2020 | 7 540 237 000 (100%) | 1 187 584 000 (15.7%) | 4 570 131 000 (60.6%) | 705 410 000 (9.4%) | 659 248 000 (8.7%) | 379 589 000 (5.0%) | 38 275 000 (0.5%) |
| 2025 | 7 851 455 000 (100%) | 1 292 085 000 (16.5%) | 4 742 232 000 (60.4%) | 696 036 000 (8.9%) | 686 857 000 (8.7%) | 394 312 000 (5.0%) | 39 933 000 (0.5%) |
| 2030 | 8 130 149 000 (100%) | 1 398 004 000 (17.2%) | 4 886 647 000 (60.1%) | 685 440 000 (8.4%) | 711 058 000 (8.7%) | 407 532 000 (5.0%) | 41 468 000 (0.5%) |
| 2035 | 8 378 184 000 (100%) | 1 504 179 000 (18.0%) | 5 006 700 000 (59.8%) | 673 638 000 (8.0%) | 731 591 000 (8.7%) | 419 273 000 (5.0%) | 42 803 000 (0.5%) |
| 2040 | 8 593 591 000 (100%) | 1 608 329 000 (18.7%) | 5 103 021 000 (59.4%) | 660 645 000 (8.0%) | 747 953 000 (8.7%) | 429 706 000 (5.0%) | 43 938 000 (0.5%) |
| 2045 | 8 774 394 000 (100%) | 1 708 407 000 (19.5%) | 5 175 311 000 (59.0%) | 646 630 000 (7.4%) | 759 955 000 (8.7%) | 439 163 000 (5.0%) | 44 929 000 (0.5%) |
| 2050 | 8 918 724 000 (100%) | 1 803 298 000 (20.2%) | 5 217 202 000 (58.5%) | 653 323 000 (7.3%) | 767 685 000 (8.6%) | 447 931 000 (5.0%) | 45 815 000 (0.5%) |
In 1798, Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would eventually outrun food supply in the middle of the 19th century, resulting in catastrophe. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reignited this argument with his book The Population Bomb, which helped give the issue significant attention throughout the 1960s and 1970s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Simon.
On the opposite end of the spectrum there are a number of people who argue that today\'s low fertility rates in Europe, North America, Japan and Australia, combined with mass immigration, will have severe negative consequences for these countries.The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization (ISBN 0-312-30259-3), by Patrick Buchanan, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity (ISBN 0-465-05050-6), by Longman, and Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future (ISBN 1-56663-606-X), by Wattenberg
Child poverty has been linked to people having children before they have the means to care for them.Population bomb still ticking away - 20 Mar 2007 - NZ Herald More recently, some scholars have put forward the Doomsday argument applying Bayesian probability to world population to argue that the end of humanity will come sooner than we usually think.DIE OFF - a population crash resource page
It should be noted that between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.Eating Fossil Fuels |EnergyBulletin.net The peaking of world hydrocarbon production (Peak oil) may test Malthus and Ehrlich critics.Peak Oil: the threat to our food security
The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic malnutrition in 2005).The limits of a Green Revolution?
Estimates of the number of human beings who have ever lived on Earth constitute an extremely large range, with low estimates around 45 billion, and the highest estimates topping out around 125 billion. Many of the more robust estimates fall into the range of 90 to 110 billion humans.
It is impossible to make anything approaching a precise count of the number of human beings who have ever lived, for the following reasons:
Considering the relatively small population in the early phases of human development, the first two factors are likely to be less significant than the third. Any such precise population count offered by any source is simply the numeric result of populations statistics, which necessarily used estimates and rough averages as their basis. Even assuming the estimates used as the basis to be significantly accurate the different statistical models are by no means perfect and are constantly being fine tuned. While they may, if done astutely, provide us with a remote idea about the number of humans who have ever lived on the Earth, the margin of error should always be regarded as being in the billions, or even the tens of billions of people.
"Guesstimating the number of people ever born... requires selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period..."How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by Carl Haub, 2002; calculated from a start date of 50,000 years BCE.
According to one set of calculations based on 2002 data:
The claim often made in various popular sources that more than half the humans ever born are alive today, is therefore in all probability quite exaggerated.
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